Ukraine’s advance into Russia’s Kursk region took most analysts by surprise, as few expected that Ukraine had the capacity to mount a meaningful offensive this summer. Indeed, despite the arrival of Western aid earlier in the year, the past six months have been some of the most difficult for Ukrainian fighters. At first, Ukraine’s strategic vision appeared unclear, yet as forces have made steady progress and frustrated Russian leadership, Ukraine’s plan seems increasingly rational. The incursion should be viewed as part of a larger strategy to unsettle regular Russians, boost Ukrainian morale, and acquire more aid from Western allies.
Arguably the most important thing to remember about the fighting is the impact this is having on Russian citizens. Multiple sources have reported that about 200,000 Russians have fled the fighting, many in cars bearing the scars of war. Ukraine wants these civilians to become enraged with Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine; they hope these citizens will say that Putin’s decision-making upended their lives and put hundreds of thousands of Russians in danger–not to mention the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have already been killed in battle. Thus, part of the Ukrainian strategy is to exploit a great weakness of autocracy. Namely that when times are good, it is often easy to rally behind a leader who maintains control, but, when circumstances sour, the people become restless and spiteful. While Ukraine should not expect this attack to cause the Russian people to revolt against Vladimir Putin, the discontent of hundreds of thousands who were thus far largely unaffected by the illegal invasion could be the start of a movement that would lead Putin to negotiate the war’s end.
The incursion is a smart strategy because an event with only limited territorial and personnel impact has shocked spectators from around the globe, including those in Russia. Although the Ukrainians have only seized a small amount of land compared to Russia’s gains in the south and east of Ukraine, their advance has brought Western focus back to the conflict from the Middle East and elsewhere. Russia’s slow response has shown that Ukraine can further escalate the conflict without provoking the nuclear response that Western allies fear so deeply. Ukrainian leadership likely hopes it can use this momentum and opportunity to strike deeper into Russian territory to further disorganise and disrupt Russia’s advances in the east.
Another reason for Ukraine’s move is to challenge and change the recent narrative espoused by Western allies and analysts. Many have openly expressed doubts about Ukraine’s capacity to continue to wage war and defend their country. This attack is meant to show the West that Ukraine is still fighting with great strength and that they can continue to do so, especially if they receive additional Western support. Ukraine’s progress in Kursk is intended to bolster support for the fighters in Western countries where aid packages have stalled or stopped due to frustrations over the seeming lack of progress. The increased use of drones and electronic warfare by the Ukrainians tells Western military leadership that their aid is necessary to change the narrative of the war. It seems reasonable to conclude that if Ukraine can make continued progress in the region Western onlookers will be more inclined to provide further aid packages.
Moreover, this incursion isn’t going to be easily or quickly repelled by Russia either. Russian military leaders have said it will take time to force out the Ukrainian fighters in Kursk. Commanders will have to make logistical and tactical plans to first flush out Ukrainian forces before even considering the way to prevent future incursions. Meanwhile, Russia is forced to respond to this incursion and will have to relocate troops to handle the situation. They will also have to decide which Ukrainian prisoners of war they will be willing to trade in return for the many Russian soldiers who have been captured in Kursk. The incursion eats away at Russian military strength, civilian support for the war, and the time needed to advance their battlefield plans.
Thus, the motivations behind the incursion are tangible and psychological. The tangible goal of Ukraine’s offensive targeting in Russian territory so far has been the destruction of Russian supply lines. Zelenskyy hopes to weaken Russia’s capacity to wage war by attacking the factories and infrastructure that produce and transport weapons, vehicles, and personnel. One of the other more psychological goals is to disorganize and disorient Russian strategists. The Kursk operation requires Russian war leaders to devote time and resources to combatting Ukraine’s incursion. Russian leadership is scrambling to come up with tactics, operations, and strategies to prevent Ukraine from making further progress in the region.
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In contrast to the frustrated Russians, Ukraine has likely been thinking about this scenario for a long time and hopefully has a plan to maintain this momentum. Their incursion is unlikely to be enough to change the tide or trajectory of the war, but in less than two weeks since the start of the military operation, the advance has provided Western and Ukrainian onlookers with some much-needed hope as the ongoing Russian offensive draws to a close over the next couple months. The invaded have become the invaders and this incursion is an opportunity for Ukraine to find more support from its allies as it prepares for the next phase of the war.
