Smoking is a known risk factor for various long-term health conditions and premature deaths. Now, a recent study reveals that by lowering the prevalence of smoking from current levels to just 5% everywhere, there will be a significant boost in life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths worldwide by 2050.
Smoking has claimed more than 175 million lives and resulted in nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (premature deaths) from 1990 to 2021.
The study published in The Lancet Public Health Journal investigated the impact of three smoking prevalence scenarios on life expectancy and years of life lost from all causes including cause-specific premature mortality. These scenarios include continuing current smoking trends, achieving zero smoking prevalence from 2023 onward (Elimination-2023), and steadily reducing smoking rates globally to just 5% (Elimination-2050).
As per 2022 estimates, the global smoking prevalence is around 28.5% for men and 5.96% for women. The analysis revealed that if smoking trends continue, there will be a drop in prevalence to around 26% for men and 30% for women by 2050. However, even with this reduction, the total number of years lost to smoking-related health issues will be about 29.3 billion for men and 22.2 billion for women. Life expectancy will rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.3 years by 2050.
In the second scenario where smoking is completely eliminated by 2023, about 2.04 billion fewer years of life would be lost, and life expectancy would rise to 77.6 years for men and 81 years for women by 2050.
In a less ambitious scenario where smoking is eliminated by 2050, about 735 million fewer years would be lost for men, and 141 million fewer years for women. Life expectancy would still increase, reaching 77.1 years for men and 80.8 years for women by 2050.
The researchers also noted that under Elimination 2050, the maximum benefits will be among men in East, Central, and Southeast Asia, with 1.2 to 1.8 extra years of life, while women in East Asia, North America, and Oceania may gain 0.3 to 0.5 additional years.
“We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking,” said senior author, Professor Stein Emil Vollset in a news release.
The study has certain limitations. It has not considered the impact of reducing second-hand smoke exposure or the potential health effects of e-cigarettes. The study also didn’t factor in future advances in healthcare, such as improved lung cancer detection or treatments.
