Mediators and Israeli negotiators were meeting in Qatar on Thursday for a high-stakes push to end the war in Gaza, where tens of thousands have died, as the Middle East braced for an anticipated retaliation against Israel by Iran and its allies that could ignite a broader armed conflict.
But Hamas was not participating in the meeting on Thursday, and it remained at odds with Israel over the details of a proposed framework for a truce being advanced by the mediators, Egypt and Qatar. Under the three-stage proposal, Hamas would gradually free the remaining hostages in Gaza in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners jailed by Israel.
International pressure had already been rising for months for some kind of deal that would end the suffering in Gaza and allow for the release of hostages held in the enclave. The Gazan Health Ministry reported on Thursday that the Palestinian death toll in the war had surpassed 40,000. The ministry’s figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians.
But prospects for a breakthrough still appear remote, leaving the Middle East facing a precarious moment. The United States has sent stealth fighter jets, a carrier group and a guided-missile submarine to the region in anticipation of an Iranian-led attack.
Israel and Hamas have been holding indirect negotiations on and off for months and are still deadlocked over numerous issues, including who would control the Gazan side of the enclave’s border with Egypt and how Israel could prevent armed Hamas fighters from returning to northern Gaza, which has been largely depopulated during the war.
In recent weeks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has toughened his country’s stance on several points. Hamas announced earlier this week that it would not participate in Thursday’s talks, though Hamas has told mediators it was open to consulting afterward should Israel present a serious response to its latest offer from early July, according to two officials familiar with the talks.
Hamas officials have said Mr. Netanyahu’s government is not genuinely interested in reaching a cease-fire, pointing to the assassination of Mr. Haniyeh in Tehran and the prime minister’s decision to introduce new conditions in recent weeks. “Hamas believes the Israeli occupation is trying to buy time with more negotiations,” said Ibrahim al-Madhoun, an Istanbul-based analyst close to Hamas.
In Israel, Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition allies continue to insist that Israel rule Gaza indefinitely, and they have already denounced the latest Israeli proposal as tantamount to surrender, vowing to oppose it. If Mr. Netanyahu moves ahead with the deal, his governing coalition could splinter, potentially ending his political career.
Mr. Netanyahu himself has equivocated on the cease-fire deal, saying he supports the three-stage proposal even as he repeatedly promises the Israeli public an “absolute victory” over Hamas. Relatives of hostages held in Gaza have argued that the prime minister has prioritized his hold on power over signing a deal to free their loved ones.
Yaron Blum, a former Israeli security official who previously led the country’s effort to bring home hostages, said the meeting on Thursday — even if successful — would be just the start of a protracted process of hashing out the details of a deal. But if the talks go poorly, the region could descend into a wider confrontation, he said.
“If everyone doesn’t work in the coming days until white smoke comes out, I don’t see it coming together going forward,” said Mr. Blum. “But there’s still a chance now, because every side realizes that they need to advance.”
The talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Thursday include the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, David Barnea; the head of Egyptian intelligence, Abbas Kamel; and Qatari prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, one of officials familiar with the talks said. The United States was being represented by the C.I.A. chief, William J. Burns, and President Biden’s Middle East envoy, Brett McGurk, the White House said.
The stakes at the talks are particularly high for the families of the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. Over 40 of the 115 hostages are now presumed dead, according to the Israeli authorities.
“Every second there are hostages held in captivity is a severe risk to their lives,” said Jon Polin, the father of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23, one of eight Israeli-American hostages. Three of them have been declared dead by the Israeli authorities.
In Gaza, most of the enclave’s more than two million people have been displaced, many repeatedly, and are living in tents or temporary lodgings. Finding enough food and safe drinking water is often a daily struggle, and swaths of the coastal enclave have been reduced to rubble.
Anas al-Tayeb, who lives in Jabaliya, just outside of Gaza City, said many there rejoiced in July, the last time mediators said cease-fire talks were progressing. But just a few days later, the Israeli military again stormed neighborhoods in Gaza City.
Mr. al-Tayeb said Israel and Hamas were both responsible for the failure to reach a deal. He wondered why Hamas had declined to accept any of the previous Israeli cease-fire proposals, which have broadly adhered to the three-stage framework.
“Those same conditions were offered before in previous rounds of negotiations,” said Mr. al-Tayeb. “So why didn’t they take it then?”
Rachel Goldberg-Polin, Hersh’s mother, said she believed it was time for everyone to agree to a “true compromise.”
“Not everyone is going to agree,” she said. “But everyone has interests and everyone gets a little bit of the interests they’re looking for. Let’s make that happen and move forward.”
