U.K. general election 2024 live updates: Polls, when to expect results and latest predictions

Opinion polling has consistently suggested the election will mark the end of 14 years of Conservative governance, with Labour flying ahead in projected voting intention. Some surveys predict smaller parties including the Lib Dems, Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could pick up record numbers of seats.

The true picture will remain unclear until Friday. Before that, the electorate must take to their local polling stations to cast their votes (if they have not done so already via a postal vote).

To ensure everyone gets a fair and equal chance to participate in this democratic process, there are a number of rules in place, which must be followed in and around polling stations.

Here’s everything you need to know about polling day:

The individual performances of Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer during the election campaign have been key, with many voters likely to be influenced by who they can relate to and trust.

Polls suggest both men have their work cut out to persuade many voters that they can be effective, but it is the Prime Minister who the polls suggest is in the most difficult position.

Polling by Ipsos suggested 72% of voters are dissatisfied with Mr Sunak’s leadership, with 17% satisfied.

Sir Keir has both a higher satisfaction rating of 32% and a lower dissatisfaction rating of 50%.

No sitting prime minister has ever failed to win their seat at a general election – but the opinion polls this time around raise the question of what would happen if Rishi Sunak loses in Richmond.

The constituency could be close, and a survey by Savanta has suggested that the Tory PM is on course to see the 27,000-strong majority in his North Yorkshire constituency overturned.

A report claimed on Wednesday that the prime minister had confided to members of his inner circle that he was fearful of losing his seat, warning confidants that he believed the race in Richmond and Northallerton was too close to call.

In the event of such an outcome being declared in the small hours of Friday, it is highly unlikely that Mr Sunak would stand down as prime minister prior to the final national election result being called later that day.

According to the Institute for Government (IfG), precedent suggests that a prime minister should be an MP – but there is no suggestion that they must immediately resign if they lose their seat.

Our reporter Andy Gregory has more:

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According to YouGov’s first June MRP predictions, 130 seats are neck-and-neck, with majorities of 0-5% for winning parties.

Our data correspondent Alicja Hagopian reports:

If you’re hoping to vote the Conservatives out today, here is a map of seats where Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP are closest to overtaking the party in power.

To read more about tactical voting and whether your constituency could be affected, read here.

Raspberry jam doughnuts featuring party leaders’ heads have been spotted at Dunn’s bakery in North London.

A number of voters might have savoured this treat as they headed to the polling stations on this sunny day.

While the NHS usually dominates attention, public services in general can have a knock-on effect on demand within the health system, as well as serve as a day-to-day reminder of the impact of political decisions in Westminster, Jonathan Bunn reports.

Local government is heavily reliant on central funding and councils are often directed by policy sent down by ministers. Councils maintain and shape local environments, delivering services that are an important part of everyday life.

Local authorities also play a key role in housing provision, another big national issue, through the planning system and by facilitating development.

The perilous state of some councils’ finances, with some already declaring effective bankruptcy, could have far-reaching consequences for communities.

The Government’s levelling up agenda significantly raised expectations of the local environments, facilities, services and opportunities being improved in places that had previously experienced little investment.

Therefore, the perceived success or otherwise of levelling up could influence voters.

However, the Government’s current spending plans, which Labour has said it will largely stick to if it forms a government, suggest local government funding will continue to be restricted, as will funding for other key public services such as prisons and the criminal justice system.

Exit polls take place at about 144 polling stations across the country, with tens of thousands of people asked to privately fill in a replica ballot as they leave, to get an indication of how they voted.

Typically, fieldworkers of the polling company Ipsos Mori descend on the same polling stations at every election, these have been chosen to be demographically representative of the country, with rural and urban seats, and weighted slightly in favour of marginal areas.

The accuracy of exit polls seems to have improved over time. In 1974, the first British exit poll predicted a Labour majority of 132, but the actual majority was three.

But in each of the past few elections the exit poll, which is published shortly after 10pm, has produced a very accurate projection of the actual result.

In 2015, the exit poll proved more accurate than opinion polls at the time, but it did not predict a Conservative majority.

Campaigners have placed 72 yellow signs by the polling station near Grenfell Tower.

Each sing represents the lives lost in 2017 when a fire broke out at the residential block in Kensington.

The Justice4Grenfell group posted a picture urging voters not to “slip up again on hollow promises from politicians”.