The Conservatives are facing a historic defeat at the election after a new poll suggested the party could be left with just 53 MPs – and Rishi Sunak would not be among them.
Adding further misery to a raft of dire poll results for Mr Sunak, the survey predicts he faces becoming the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat.
The findings also suggest that with 50 MPs, the Tories could be battling the Lib Dems for second place.
The Savanta and Electoral Calculus polling analysis puts Labour on 516 seats, with an estimated majority of 382 – twice the size of Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide – suggesting recent Tory warnings of a Labour “super-majority” are correct.
While Nigel Farage’s Reform was not predicted to win any seats, a separate mega-poll by YouGov added to Mr Sunak’s woes, predicting the successor to the Brexit Party would return five MPs to Westminster.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta said: “These are figures are stark, but are a consequence of the almost unique set of events conspiring against the Conservative Party this election – from the short campaign effects of the D-Day gaffe and the rise of Reform UK, to the longer-term brand challenges going back to the mini budget and Partygate.”
He added: “We’ve been conditioned for so long to believe the Conservative Party, as the natural party of government, will always be a major political force. But our MRP projections – in partnership with Electoral Calculus – suggests that they will be fighting with the Liberal Democrats to be the Official Opposition, with Labour on for a historic majority.”
He added that his polling firm currently rate nearly 200 seats as “too close to call, meaning just small changes could have a huge impact on the outcome of this election”.
YouGov predicted Labour was on course to achieve a 200-seat majority.
It found Labour would take 425 seats, with the Tories on 108, the Liberal Democrats 67, SNP 20, Reform UK five, Plaid Cymru four and the Green Party two.
Earlier, another mega-poll, by More In Common UK, found the Conservatives on course for their worst defeat in more than a century with high-profile names including Jeremy Hunt set to lose their seats.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, which carried out the research, said the findings showed that the Tories were in a “deep hole” and the problem was getting worse.
The poll, of more than 10,000 people, suggests the Conservatives would hold on to just 155 seats, their worst total since 1906.
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