`
RICE prices again jumped to a level last seen when the country had to grapple with supply issues caused by export bans imposed by rice-producing nations, according to the latest data released by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
In March 2024, rice inflation accelerated to 24.4 percent, the highest since the 24.6 percent posted in February 2009. The highest rice prices recorded was 36.4 percent in July 2008.
PSA said the country’s overall inflation rate was at 3.7 percent in March 2024, faster than the 3.4 percent posted in February 2024. However, inflation was slower compared to the 7.6 percent posted in March 2023.
“So, [the] expectation [is], it will actually increase strongly until sometime July because of base effects, unless there is really some intervention in the market [that will suddenly ease the] pressure. We don’t seen any of that now,” National Statistician Claire Dennis S. Mapa said in a briefing on Friday, speaking partly in Filipino.
Asked if there is a possibility that rice prices will exceed the 15-year high, Mapa said he would rather wait for the new data to be released in the next few months before he can comment.
Nonetheless, data showed rice prices have been increasing in the double digits since September 2023, when rice prices increased 17.9 percent and started the year with a rice inflation of 22.6 percent.
Rice prices have been rising since January 2022 at 1 percent from the 0.1 deflation in December 2021 and 0.3 percent increase in January 2021.
The PSA said regular-milled, well-milled, and special rice categories all exhibited double-digit increases year-on-year and single-digit growth month-on-month.
“[In our] overall inflation for all income at 3.7 percent, rice inflation contributed 1.8 percentage points, about 48 percent of overall inflation. As for inflation for the bottom 30 percent, dito talaga malaki [this is really big],” Mapa said.
“To the inflation for the bottom 30 percent of 4.6 percent, as reported earlier, the rice inflation contributed 3.7 percentage points. So, its contribution to the March 2024 overall inflation is about 80 percent,” he added.
Mapa said regular milled rice increased 28.1 percent to P51.11 per kilo in March 2024 from P39.90 per kilo in March 2023. On a month-on-month basis, there was a 1.3-percent increase from the P50.44 per kilo average in February 2024.
In terms of well-milled rice, prices grew 27.6 percent to P56.44 per kilo last month from P44.23 per kilo in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, the growth was 0.9 percent from P55.93 per kilo in February 2024.
Special rice prices, meanwhile, increased 19.9 percent to P64.75 per kilo in March 2024 from P54 per kilo in March 2023. Compared to February 2024, special rice prices increased 0.5 percent from P64.42 per kilo.
BSP’s outlook, NG’s tracking
“Inflation could temporarily accelerate above the target range in the next two quarters of the year due to the possible impact of adverse weather conditions to domestic agricultural output and positive base effects,” the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in a statement.
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said, however, that the national government is monitoring weather conditions and their effects on the supply of key commodities, particularly food and energy.
The PSA said food and transport prices were considered the top causes for faster inflation. In terms of transport prices, PSA data showed it increased 2.1 percent on the back of a 3-percent increase in passenger transport services.
Mapa said the main culprit was tricycle prices in Areas Outside the National Capital Region (AONCR), where the average fare increased to P17.80 in March 2024 from P17.5 in March 2023 and P17.72 in February 2024.
“If you recall, on Tuesday of the Holy Week, prices of gasoline, diesel went up. So, that’s part of it. So, really from month to month, there’s an increase in prices of oil products, gasoline, diesel,” Mapa said.
Meanwhile, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) said the government will closely monitor food and energy prices moving forward. Secretary Balisacan said these efforts are crucial in protecting Filipino households from sudden price increases.
These efforts, Balisacan said, include assistance to farmers adversely affected by the drought—being done through the Department of Agriculture—and ensuring sufficient water supply of farmers.
“To ensure sufficient water supply and support our farmers during the dry season, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources has been tasked with monitoring water supply in the country,” Balisacan said.
The government’s chief economic planner also reported that preparations for La Niña are starting. These measures aim to ensure food and energy security, availability of clean water supply, and public health and safety.
Moreover, to ease the burden of high electricity prices on vulnerable Filipinos, eligible consumers can receive a 100 percent discount on their monthly bills through the government’s Lifeline Rate program. As of January 2024, 4.9 percent of the 4.6 million Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps) beneficiaries have registered for the program.
As confirmed in a full Cabinet meeting held on April 3, 2024, the Development Budget Coordination Committee retains its target range for inflation at 2.0 to 4.0 percent for 2024 until 2028. The committee remains optimistic that the monetary and non-monetary measures will rein in commodity prices and prevent future surges.
Image credits: Aldar Darmaev | Dreamstime.com, Michael Edwards | Dreamstime.com
Input your search keywords and press Enter.
