After Quiboloy, Duterte next? How Marcos Junior Uses Legalware as Political

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Roa Duterte and his spiritual advisor Apollo Quiboloy are currently facing serious criminal and political charges. Although justice is the primary reason why both should be held accountable and accept imprisonment, the reality is that these legal charges are being used to keep these two public figures in check and prevent them from making inflammatory remarks against the current government. This means that Marcos Jr. is not interested in justice per se, but rather, he is simply using these cases as leverage in his contentious political rivalry with the Dutertes.

There is a growing concern for the safety of Pastor Apollo Quiboloy as he seems to be facing threats from different sides. Some speculate that he is being used as a sacrificial lamb by both the Marcos and Duterte camps. Quiboloy’s potential arrest could be a test case – if he, a private individual accused of various criminal and civil cases, can be brought to justice, then it raises the likelihood that former president Rodrigo Roa Duterte, his best friend, could face a similar fate. The FBI has issued a warrant for Quiboloy’s arrest for crimes committed in the United States. If the cases against him are successful in ordinary courts, the FBI may submit an extradition letter to try Quiboloy in the US. Whether the Philippines will honor such a letter or not is entirely political, not purely on a legal basis.

It is believed by some that if Donald Trump were to win the presidential election, it would protect Philippine President Duterte from any potential jail time resulting from the International Criminal Court (ICC). However, this is unlikely to happen. Despite Trump’s friendship with Duterte, the United States would not sacrifice its interests in the Asia-Pacific region for his sake. Unlike Putin, Duterte’s alignment with China has made him and his supporters a perceived threat to US national security. As a result, many see the removal of Duterte from the public sphere as necessary for the protection of US interests.

So, even if Duterte already threatened to just die rather than be arrested, the chances of him being behind jails alive looms. As one source says, it is just a matter of time. That explains why Duterte and Quiboloy are both holed up in their respective fiefdoms, ready to fire and engage national security forces, for self-preservation. We all know what happened when leaders resist—they are still eventually captured, detained and put behind bars. Unless of course, like Hitler, they kill themselves first.

Remember that the International Criminal Court (ICC) had just issued warrants of arrest against two Russian generals involved in the gruesome killings related to the Ukrainian war. see link: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/05/europe/icc-charges-russians-ukraine-intl/index.html.

For years, the ICC had its ups and downs. Criticized for being a toothless tiger, the ICC has though redeemed itself with the arrests of several heads of state due to alleged crimes against humanity. According to the website of the Council for Foreign Relations, “between 1995 and 2015, the ICTR completes ninety-three cases, nearly all against members of the Hutu ethnic majority and including that of former Prime Minister Jean Kambanda. Kambanda pleads guilty to six counts—including genocide—and is sentenced to life imprisonment for crimes against humanity. The tribunal formally closes at the end of 2015.” See link: https://www.cfr.org/timeline/leaders-facing-justice.

Again in this website, it cited the prosecution and incarceration of “Kosovar President Hashim Thaci on ten counts of war crimes—including murder, forced disappearances, persecution, and torture—allegedly committed during the breakaway region’s conflict with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1998–1999. Thaci, who pleads not guilty to the charges, headed the political wing of the rebel Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). The announcement of the indictment comes as Thaci (representing a now independent Kosovo) is traveling to Washington for U.S.-mediated reconciliation talks with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, forcing him to abandon the White House meeting. He resigns in November and enters a Hague detention facility along with three Kosovar Albanian codefendants.”

While President Marcos again publicly announced that he is still not quite convinced to allow the entry of the ICC in the country, the possibility of the ICC effecting an arrest warrant against Duterte remains. Such a decision though is contingent with the Dutertes shutting their mouths up and deter them from using extra constitutional actions to kick the Marcoses out of power.

Eventually, international pressure will simply kick in, particularly at this time when the Philippines is engaged in a charm diplomacy to court more defense allies. Marcos junior may still sacrifice Duterte and Quiboloy for the preservation of his regime and his power.

This is a lesson for all those who got themselves in power and enjoyed abusing that power—that justice will eventually caught up with them. Duterte had alienated so many Filipino leaders that the fight against him had taken a very serious turn. Like how Baste felt when he decried how the Marcoses did not reciprocate the gracious gesture of his father when he allowed the burial of the former Marcos patriarch to the Libingan ng mga Bayani, so do hundreds if not millions of right-minded Filipinos who were victimized by the former brutal Duterte regime. Baste’s speech while brutally frank show how political leaders engage in transactional politics and the transaction is definitely not for the welfare of the nation, but rather purely personal.

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