[1] WHAT WENT BEFORE. The seat of House of Representatives in Cebu City south, the city’s second district, had long been controlled by the Cuencos: from 1987 to 2010, with Antonio “Tony” Cuenco serving 20 years and his wife Nancy, three years. Tony’s last term ended in 2010 after besting Jonathan Guardo in 2007.
BOPK founder and leader Tomas Osmeña succeeded Tony until 2013 when Rodrigo “Bebot” Abellanosa ran as the party’s bet for congressman and defeated Aristotle Batuhan, Tommy having decided after a lackluster and forgettable one term that Congress was not his institution of choice.
Bebot had since stayed on, becoming some political dragon in the south, slaying, one after the other, the congressional dreams of Gerardo “Gerry” Carillo in 2016 and Jocelyn “Joy” Pesquera in 2019.
When the law on term limit disabled Bebot from the 2022 polls, the then outgoing congressman, like most other political patriarchs that wish to keep political jewels within the family, managed to have his son BG Bebot run for the House seat and another son Jose run for the Cebu City Council. Jose won the Sanggunian seat but BG lost the race for Congress.
For the next election in May 2025, Bebot Abellanosa, the family’s honcho and boss of bosses — as expected by political watchers — is back, this time battling his son’s 2022 victor, current titleholder, Rep. Eduardo “Edu” Rama Jr.
Other takeaways from one of the fights to watch this political season:
[2] WIN RECORDS. Bebot had three victories in the same ring and same category. Edu had only one, as of now.
Bebot trounced Totol Batuhan in 2013 with a plurality of 24, 684 votes (55.54% of the vote); Gerry Carillo in 2016 by 59,723 votes (59.26%); and Joy Pesquera in 2019 by 80,035 votes (61.22%).
Edu defeated BG Abellanosa in 2022 by 25,615 votes (54.42%).
Circumstances and conditions differ in different elections but what do the past voting figures tell us, if anything? Bebot and Edu each won his first race for congressman with less than a deafening (literally, “makabungog”) majority. But there’s no guarantee that Edu could follow Bebot’s increase in margins — or win at all — in the next elections.
Edu Rama in 2016 placed third in the election for city councilors (130, 948 votes, next only to David Tumulak, No. 1, and Margot Osmeña, No. 2) in Cebu City south. In 2019, Edu landed also third (141,716 votes, behind Dondon Hontiveros and David Tumulak). But the City Council race is a different fight, with each aspirant competing for one of eight seats in a district.
[3] EDU’S PLUSES. Going for the incumbent Cong Edu:
— Edu has been sitting in the House, the person in power since June 30, 2022, the congressman with access to resources of the Government and the means to direct them to benefit his constituents;
— He has had the opportunity to keep supporters and win over non-supporters through services and favors he has given during his term.
— He has been or can be the public figure on the national and local stage, enabled by his occupancy of the position.
[4] AND EDU’S MINUSES. Going against Edu:
— The perceived “under-performance” by the congressman as legislator. He has still to release a list of his accomplishments, critics say. But then most, if not all, other House members from Cebu have not also bothered to make a term-end report that comes out in the news media. Most have been content with publishing self-serving Facebook pages, which don’t impress most people unless they are disclosed along with a controversy or scandal.
Apparently, incumbent legislators from the province forget that accomplishments not publicly known by their constituents don’t matter much, except of course the personal favors that individuals or families might have received from their congressman or congresswoman.
The House website lists bills that each member has filed but the bills they principally wrote have languished in committees or are stuck in the Senate; they don’t count until the President signs, or allows them to lapse, into law, the only time the law begins to touch people’s lives.
Who has read about Edu or any other Cebu Congress member shining at the public forum? Edu may ask though, But what did Cebu hear about Bebot Abellanosa in his nine years of Congress?
Still, ranged against the current crop of Congress personalities from Cebu. The voices of a Cuenco, a Garcia, a Gullas, or an Osmeña would ring in the halls of Congress and reverberated to Cebu through the national and local media. With the present breadth and reach of the internet, we could’ve heard the voices of Cebu’s current legislators more loudly and clearly. Instead, their silences have been, ah, deafening.
— The built-in network of supporters the Abellanosas have set up through the years. True, that failed Bebot’s son BG in 2022 but would it fail the father this time? It’s an imponderable that an efficient and far-reaching survey might predict but would befuddle us until the tally is done.
[5] BEBOT’S PLUSES AND MINUSES. Then congressman Abellanosa had served longer than incumbent congressman Rama (Bebot’s nine years compared to Edu’s almost three years). That may partly explain why Bebot was mired in a number of controversies while Edu is yet to be.
The Ombudsman in November 2014 dismissed Bebot, finding him guilty of grave misconduct for his school’s involvement in the City Government P51.065-million scholarship program, “a clear case of conflict of interest.”
In February 2017, the Sandiganbayan threw out the anti-graft charge against Bebot, saying that technically the resolution that he voted for in the City Council was “neither a transaction nor an act but only a statement of support to the mayor’s executive order.” Never mind that it authorized the mayor to enter into a contract with Bebot’s school, which the then councilor also headed as trustee-president.
Would controversies like that — including Cebu City’s P1.3 billion drainage debacle, which was “critiqued” by COA in its 2023 report — affect Bebot’s chances in 2025? Maybe. Or maybe not anymore, as voters are known to forget easily. Failed memory could work both ways: forget the scandals and forget the personas well.
The factor that could make the difference for Bebot is his personal political machinery in the south, where he has spent more time, money and energy in honing than Edu has on his own campaign apparatus.
The pall of doubt is that it didn’t work for Bebot’s son BG in 2022. Whether the dad could make it run more efficiently for himself in 2025 is the question only the vote count would confirm or negate.
[6] MIKE RAMA FACTOR. Edu’s win in 2022 was partly helped by his uncle Michael “Mike” Rama. (Edu is son of Mike’s late brother governor Eduardo Rama Sr.) Mike was then the sitting mayor, ascended from vice mayor and serving the remaining term of mayor Edgardo Labella who died on November 19, 2021. As incumbent mayor at the time, Mike enjoyed an edge over rival Margot Osmeña, which also benefited Edu as the majority party Barug’s candidate for congressman.
For this election, Mike Rama is not the sitting mayor, having been evicted by an Ombudsman order of dismissal. and doesn’t have the resources of City Hall to help Mike and Edu get elected.
But then neither does Bebot have that kind of assistance, as BOPK, his party, is not in power. As Edu can be pulled up or dragged down by Barug tandem of Mike and Dondon Hontiveros, so can Bebot be by the BOPK duo of Nestor Archival Sr. and Tomas Osmeña.
[7] PERSONAL QUALITIES. A broadcaster — when asked who he thinks would be the next congressman in Cebu City south, Cong Edu or ex-cong Bebot — quipped with a straight face: “Sa edad o gwapohay?”
Personal characteristics help sway voters although to what extent is another imponderable that even the vote count doesn’t conclusively unlock.
