A DONALD Trump presidency is good for the Philippine economy, an economist and senator said as the Republican candidate reclaimed the White House after winning three of the seven battleground states Wednesday.
Trump has vowed to increase tariffs for products imported by the US if re-elected. Such protectionist measure will likely affect countries with a trade surplus with the US.
The Philippines enjoys a trade surplus with the United States approximately $10 billion in 2022.
While the Philippines has more exports than imports to the US, Trump’s trade policy will not likely affect the Philippines, according to Prof. George Manzano, PhD of the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) School of Economics.
“When you look at the export profile or the types of goods that the Philippines exports to the US, around 50-60 percent are electronic products. And electronic products usually enter the US duty-free,” Manzano said.
The International Technology Agreement (ITA) under the World Trade Organization binds countries to trade electronic products at very low tariffs or zero tariffs.
An increase on tariff in semiconductors would also hurt the IT industry of the US because these are intermediate products, he said.
If the prices of intermediate products are expensive due to higher tariffs, then the cost of final IT products made in the US would not be as competitive.
“I don’t think the US will increase the tariffs on electronics products unilaterally, unless they leave the ITA which is not very good also. So I think, despite the rhetoric of increased tariffs by the US, the big chunk of Philippine exports which is electronics could still enter the US duty-free,” Manzano said.
More China than PHL
HE believes that the US tariff increase will target more of China than the Philippines.
“President Trump is really very sensitive when it comes to the balance of trade. He feels that if you have a negative balance of trade, meaning they import more than they export, that means it’s a sign of weakness and the target then was China,” Manzano explained.
During the first salvo of President Trump’s trade war with China, Vietnam was able to win over foreign investors that exited China.
If Trump pushes through with his plan to put pressure on China-made products, it would be a second wave of the trade war with the United States.
The Philippines should be ready this time to accommodate foreign investors leaving China.
“Firms that are already invested in China will look for alternative countries which they can use as export base. And the Philippines has good diplomatic relations with China. The only issue is that we have to be competitive, to have very good human resources, excellent logistics for industries who might relocate from China,” he said.
Tolentino’s take
SEN. Francis Tolentino also shared this view when interviewed during the US Embassy election watch party in Manila Wednesday night.
Tolentino, who has a masters of law degree from Columbia University and practiced law in New York, is an openly Trump supporter.
“Trump getting gung-ho on China is definitely good for the Philippines. If some, if not all, manufacturing firms are relocated outside China, their decision will definitely be to go to the Philippines,” he said.
Tolentino said some semiconductor firms from China have already transferred to Malaysia and he is confident that some will also move to the Philippines.
The senator also believes that under the new Trump administration, there will be stronger bilateral defense relations with the Philippines.
He claimed that it was the Republicans which started the fight for the Philippine maritime right in the West Philippine Sea.
“This coming Friday, the President will sign the two laws—maritime zones law and the archipelagic sea lanes law. I’m sure the Republican side will embrace these laws. They were the ones who first fought for the concept of Indo-Pacific defense posture,” he said. (See related story: https://businessmirror.com.ph/2024/11/06/what-harris-or-trump-presidency-means-for-the-philippines/)
US Ambassador to Manila MaryKay Carlson said she is confident of the continued bipartisan support from the US for the Philippines.
“We have been through a lot of transitions from Republican to Democrat and back and forth. I’m extremely confident that US-Philippine relations will remain steadfast friends and iron-clad allies no matter who wins in the national elections today,” Carlson told reporters Wednesday morning.
America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”
French President Emmanuel Macron posted on X: “Ready to work together as we were able to do during four years. With your convictions and mine. In respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.”
Trump, whose political career has been defined by division and acrimony, told the audience at his election night party early on Wednesday that it was “time to unite” as a country.
“It’s time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us,” Trump said. “It’s time to unite.”
“We have to put our country first for at least a period of time,” he added. “We have to fix it.”
Most of the important people in Trump’s personal and political life have joined him on stage in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Former first lady Melania Trump stood near her husband and was joined by Barron, the former president’s youngest son. Trump’s older children, Don Jr., Eric, Ivanka and Tiffany, all joined their father on stage, too.
Trump’s top political minds, including top campaign advisers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, joined Trump on stage. And his political allies were on stage, too, including House Speaker Mike Johnson.
Trump also celebrated a few celebrities in the audience and on stage.
Trump also shouted out Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of X, who has become one of his most high-profile supporters. “We have a new star. A star is born: Elon,” Trump said.
“The number of victories in the Senate was absolutely incredible,” Trump said.
Republicans have so far won 51 seats, giving them a majority. But Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada have not been called, and it’s possible Republicans could pick up more seats.
Trump also said he expected Republicans to hold the House and complimented House Speaker Mike Johnson. The House, however, is still up for grabs.
There are over 70 House races across the country that have not been called, and neither party has a convincing edge in the tally of House races.The AP’s current count has him at 267 of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House. He is leading in key races left to be called, including Michigan and Wisconsin.
Pennsylvania puts Trump three electoral votes short of the presidential threshold.
The pickups for House Democrats have mostly come from New York so far as the party flipped its second seat in the state.
Democrat Josh Riley defeated Republican Rep. Mark Molinaro in a district that spans across the center of the state. Democrats earlier flipped a seat held by Rep. Brandon Williams.
While a House majority is still up for grabs, the victories will buoy Democrats’ hopes, especially in House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ home state.
Polls closed in Nevada nearly three hours late after voters waited in long lines to cast ballots, the state’s top election official said, and initial election results began to be posted just before 10 p.m. PST.
Polls had been scheduled to close at 7 p.m., but state law allows anyone in line at that time to cast a ballot.
Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar acknowledged Nevada’s position as an electoral battleground and promised to keep updating results as the counties receive “and cure” additional ballots.
Mailed ballots are accepted and counted until Saturday, and thousands of voters whose ballots were set aside to allow for signature verification, or “curing,” have until 5 p.m. Nov. 12 to validate their vote with election officials.
Aguilar, a Democrat, called Nevada’s elections “safe, secure and transparent” and said he was proud of reports of high voter turnout.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. joined the Trump watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, entering and walking briskly as he made his way near the stage among crowds of supporters.
Trump has said he will play a role when it comes to health policy but has not specified what that would be. Kennedy, who launched his own presidential bid as an independent before dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump, joined him at several rallies in the last stretch of the campaign.
As the election stretched into the early hours of Wednesday, Republicans—seeing a map trending positively for their party—began to point to a shift in demographic support among key voting groups who often lean Democrat.
Preliminary AP VoteCast data suggested a shift among Black and Latino voters, who appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to back Biden four years ago. About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden. More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Trump’s support among those groups appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020.
Republican Sen. Marco Rubio told AP at Trump’s election watch party in West Palm Beach, Florida, that he’s excited for the exit polling in states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Republicans are already seeing overperformance compared to this time in the election in 2020.
Republicans secure Senate control
The GOP won control of the Senate as Sen. Deb Fischer secured reelection in Nebraska.
With at least 51 Senate seats secured, Republicans will retake control of the chamber for the first time in four years. It gives the party a major power center in Washington and important power in confirming the next president’s Cabinet, as well as any Supreme Court justice if there is a vacancy.
With a handful of battleground races yet to be decided, Republicans still have an opportunity to grow their majority.
GOP senators have already been looking at ways to extend tax cuts that were passed during Donald Trump’s first term, as well as sending funding towards toughened border security measures.
However, the extent of Republicans’ power in Washington will also be determined by the results of the presidential and House races.
